Nintendo’s shares, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), have doubled in value over the past two years, representing a 93% increase. Will the trend continue?
Nearly eight years after the original launch of the Switch, Nintendo has officially announced the release of the Switch 2, scheduled for June 5. Fueled by speculation regarding the new console, the stock has surged by 93% over the past two years, climbing from approximately 5,600 yen ($38.60) to its current price of 10,040 yen ($70.50). What are the future forecasts for the stock?
Nintendo shares: the rally begins with Switch
With the launch of the first Nintendo Switch in 2017, Nintendo successfully overcame the challenges that had caused many iconic companies from the 1990s to 2010s to fail, such as Blockbuster, which struggled to adapt to change. After the disappointing performance of the Wii U, Nintendo found itself at a crossroads, as the gaming landscape was undergoing a significant transformation. The market seemed to have little room left for the ‘old-fashioned‘ consoles that had defined the childhood of entire generations.
Recognizing the need for a clear change—a ‘switch’—the company’s top management initiated work on the new product. As rumors began to circulate, Nintendo’s share price soared by 74% in July 2016. By March 2017, when the Switch was launched, the share price jumped from 2,300 yen to around 7,800 yen by June 2021, marking a remarkable increase of 190%. However, as innovation continued to accelerate, the Switch began to feel outdated, and the demand for an upgraded model started to grow.
Nintendo and Switch 2 shares: the stock’s resurgence
Nintendo shares experienced a decline, losing up to 25 percent between 2021 and 2023, reaching a low of 5,000 yen ($33.80). While the Nintendo Switch performed well, selling more than 120 million units by the end of 2022 and ranking among the top three best-selling consoles of all time, following the Nintendo DS and the PlayStation 2, it had been six years since its launch, leading fans to desire something new.
As rumors about the next product began to circulate, the share price rose by 30% from April to July 2023, stabilizing between 6,000 and 6,500 yen (between $40 and $45). This rally was fueled by excitement surrounding various statements, leaks, and significant news, such as the reduction of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s (PIF) stake in the company, which enhanced the perception of Nintendo’s financial stability and reduced exposure to speculation.
The long-awaited Switch 2 was finally revealed on YouTube on January 21, 2025. Following this announcement, Nintendo shares reached an all-time high (ATH) on February 19, hitting a peak of 11,800 yen ($78.70).
Nintendo shares and the future: duties could complicate the situation
Since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of 19,000 yen on February 19, Nintendo shares have declined by just over 12% and are currently hovering around 10,000 yen. This decline can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there has been negative news, including the postponement of the sale date to June 5 (originally scheduled for early spring) and concerns that the price of €469/$530 is too high. Secondly, the economic policies and tariffs associated with the Trump administration could further increase prices, particularly in China, which is one of the most important and profitable gaming markets in the world. Looking ahead, TradingView surveyed 23 analysts for their one-year projections on Nintendo’s stock performance. The highest price estimate is 16,000 yen (+59%), while the lowest is 6,000 yen (-39%), with an average estimate of 11,530 yen (+14%). Will Nintendo manage to defy expectations once more? Sign up to stay updated!
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