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USA Inflation: Today’s CPI Data

Filippo Iachello

December 23, 2025

4 min

US CPI Data Today: Inflation Results & Market Impact

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has just been released: what it means for the markets

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the primary data used to estimate inflation in the United States, has been released. The fate of the markets depends on US inflation and, consequently, on the CPI data published on February 13th. In this article, we will discover what the CPI is, why it matters, and analyze the latest available figures.

Understanding the meaning of CPI

Technically, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a fundamental economic indicator that measures the price change of goods and services that we buy daily. In other words, the CPI tells us how much it costs to live today compared to the past.

The CPI is calculated by collecting price data on a representative “basket” of goods and services that consumers typically purchase. This basket includes a variety of products such as food, clothing, housing, transport, education, healthcare, and other common items. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects prices monthly across 75 urban areas and compares them with the previous period.

Why is this data so important?

The CPI is used to measure inflation, which is the increase in the cost of living. If the CPI rises, it means prices are increasing and that, on average, you have to spend more to live the same way as before.

Bitcoin and CPI: how are they linked?

The Consumer Price Index is one of the main indicators that Federal Reserve members consider when making monetary policy decisions: generally, when inflation falls, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is more comfortable cutting rates and vice versa.

Currently, however, analysts believe that the Fed Chair and the Board of Governors presiding over the FOMC are inclined to keep rates stable for the upcoming meetings to assess the impact of cuts made during 2025.

In any case, the CPI remains a fundamental tool for understanding the inflation trend and trying to predict the U.S. central bank’s behavior: if you are interested, you can find all the 2026 dates in our article on the Fed meeting calendar.

Looking at the previous results

The last CPI in January was lower than forecasts and the previous month’s figure: consistent with the above, this data did not influence the Fed’s choices, which left rates at December levels as anticipated.

February 2026 CPI: data analysis

On February 13th, 2026, the BLS published the report on price changes for U.S. consumers. According to the report, the monthly CPI (MoM) increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, while the year-over-year (YoY) CPI grew by 2.4%. This figure is quite positive, as year-over-year inflation is stable and remains close to the Fed’s 2% target.

What Do these numbers signify?

The fact that the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year suggests that inflation has entered a stabilization phase: these readings are slightly lower than those of the previous month. In January, the BLS report showed a 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY increase.

What will the Fed decide regarding interest rates in the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC? On the FedWatch Tool, the primary tool for these forecasts, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut remains very low, standing at 9.8%.