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USA Inflation: Today’s CPI Data

Filippo Iachello

December 23, 2025

4 min

US CPI Data Today: Inflation Results & Market Impact

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Has Just Been Released: What It Means for the Markets

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the key metric used to estimate inflation in the United States, has just been released. The fate of the markets often hinges on US inflation figures, and therefore on the CPI data published today. In this article, we’ll explore what the CPI is, why it matters, and examine the latest figures.

What Does CPI Mean?

Technically, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a fundamental economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services typically purchased by consumers. In other words, it tells us how much more (or less) it costs to live today compared to the past.

The CPI is calculated by collecting price data on a representative “basket” of goods and services that consumers commonly buy. This basket includes a variety of essential products, such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, healthcare, and other everyday necessities. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) collects prices monthly across 75 urban areas and compares them with previous periods.

Why Is It Important?

The CPI is used to measure inflation, which indicates the rate at which the cost of living is rising. If the CPI increases, it means that prices are rising, and, on average, people need to spend more to maintain their standard of living.

Bitcoin and CPI: How are they linked?

When, on the occasion of the last FOMC, the Fed announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, the price of Bitcoin did not react particularly sharply, because the decision was widely anticipated: Chairman Jerome Powell, already in his speech at Jackson Hole, had intimated that the Federal Reserve, in its monetary policy assessments, would prioritise containing the unemployment rate rather than maintaining price stability.

In this context, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) loses some relevance compared to other indicators, primarily Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Nevertheless, it remains a fundamental tool for understanding inflation trends and forecasting the behaviour of the American central bank: a stable or declining CPI would significantly increase the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC. You can find all the dates for 2026 in our article on the Fed meeting calendar.

The last time this happened

The previous CPI in October came in lower than forecasts but higher than the September CPI. The figure did not alter the Fed’s choices, which, as we have already explained, since the end of August, have focused more on unemployment trends.

A curiosity: this CPI is “different” from usual because it occurs in a post-shutdown context. For those unaware, a government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to approve the federal budget, which governs public spending. In this situation, all non-essential spending is automatically frozen until a budget agreement satisfying both Republicans and Democrats is reached.

Even the Bureau of Labour Statistics, the body responsible for publishing labour and inflation data, falls under the “non-essential” category. For this reason, in November, no updates were released on the state of inflation in the United States: the December readings, therefore, use October as a benchmark – which reflects the situation in September – and not the month just passed.

So, how did today’s CPI go?

December 2025 CPI: Data Analysis

On 18 December 2025, the BLS published the report regarding price changes for US consumers. According to the report, the monthly CPI (MoM) increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year CPI (YoY) rose 2.7%. This figure is positive, as year-on-year inflation is falling and approaching the Fed’s 2% target.

What do these numbers mean?

The fact that the CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year indicates that inflation has been less aggressive than expected; both readings are below expectations. Analysts, in fact, were forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year increase.

What will the Fed decide regarding interest rates at the FOMC on 27-28 January 2026? On the FedWatch Tool, the premier instrument for this type of forecast, the probabilities of a 25 basis point cut are already higher than the day before the CPI release.