US employment data has been released: Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. How did the markets react?
On Wednesday, February 11th, the American BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released labor market data. Specifically, reports were published on Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), representing new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector, and the unemployment rate. What is the current situation? How did the markets behave and why?
The Data: Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
The February 11th report is the second of the newly started year, but let’s get straight to the point: NFP grew by 130,000 units, a figure significantly higher than the expectations of 70,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, 0.1% lower than the previous month and the initial forecasts.
Economic Implications of the Latest Figures
The financial world places great importance on these reports since the labor market is a closely watched indicator, especially since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed a shift in priorities at Jackson Hole: when evaluating monetary policy moves, the U.S. central bank now places more emphasis on containing unemployment rather than price stability.
Based on these statements, the logical chain guiding investors for at least four months is as follows: if NFPs are lower than expected and the unemployment rate rises, it is highly likely that the next FOMC meeting will see a rate cut.
However, as occurred during the last FOMC, analysts believe that the members of the Board of Governors want to wait and assess the impact of cuts made during 2025 before returning to a more dovish approach – if you are interested in monetary policy meetings, you can find the complete 2026 calendar here.
March FOMC Forecasts: Market Odds
The CME Group FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probabilities of FOMC rate cuts based on Fed Funds futures prices, currently shows “No Change” at 94.1%, while a 25-basis-point cut is likely at only 5.9%. These percentages are entirely provisional and change daily; they will certainly become more stable as the meeting approaches.
How Markets Reacted to the Employment Report
The crypto market, for now, shows a negative reaction: compared to the day before the labor data publication, Bitcoin is losing 3.7% and trading around $66,300; Ethereum also enters negative territory, dropping 4.8% to currently sit at $1,920. Solana follows suit, falling 4.3% to $79.4. We close this section with the Total Market Cap, which stands at $2.24 trillion.
The DXY index rose by 0.14%, measuring the dollar’s performance against six major global currencies, while gold grew by 0.5%, continuing its trend at $5,050.
What’s Next for Global Markets?
In the coming days, we will likely witness a very volatile market, particularly in the crypto sector: the current moment is driven by strong emotions that can shift billions of capital in just a few hours.
In any case, we will be here to update you on the news and facts that move the markets. Join Young Platform to stay informed on what matters!
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