US employment data has been released: Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. How did the markets react?
On Wednesday, February 11th, the American BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released labor market data. Specifically, reports were published on Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), representing new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector, and the unemployment rate. What is the current situation? How did the markets behave and why?
On Friday, May 8, the US BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the latest labor market data. Specifically, the report covers Non Farm Payrolls (NFP)—the number of new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector—and the unemployment rate. What is the current situation? How did the markets behave, and why?
The data: Non Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate
The May 8 release is the fifth of 2026, but let’s get straight to the point: NFPs grew by 115,000, a figure far higher than expectations, which estimated 62,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% compared to April, matching forecasts.
The implications
As is well known, the financial world places great importance on these reports since the labor market is a highly scrutinized indicator, especially since the Federal Reserve released its March FOMC Minutes. In evaluating its monetary policy moves, the US central bank is closely monitoring both the employment situation and price stability. With the outbreak of the war in Iran—you can find the recap of market reactions since the start of the conflict at this link—and the resulting inflationary pressures, it is crucial that at least the first of these two indicators remains positive.
Based on these statements, the logical chain guiding the markets since the beginning of 2026 is as follows: if NFPs fall below forecasts and the unemployment rate rises, the likelihood increases that the FOMC could raise interest rates later this year—if you are interested in monetary policy meetings, you can find the complete 2026 FOMC meeting schedule here.
Forecasts for the April FOMC
The CME Group’s FedWatch, a tool that calculates the probability of FOMC rate cuts based on Fed Funds futures prices, currently puts ‘No Change’ at 98.1%, while a 25-basis-point cut—i.e., 0.25%—stands at a 0% probability. That’s right: the remaining 1.9% represents a rate hike.
Even though the next meeting is still some time away, the May Consumer Price Index—the second since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran—points to a significant return of inflation: the price of Brent crude oil, which is now hovering steadily around $100 a barrel, is driving up the overall cost of living.
What’s next?
Over the next few days, we will most likely see a highly volatile market, particularly on the crypto side. The current environment is heavily driven by emotions, which can shift hundreds of billions of dollars in capital in just a matter of hours.In any case, we will be right here to keep you updated on the news and events moving the markets. Subscribe to to Young Platform so you don’t miss out on what matters!
Related Article
Download the Young Platform app
